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2023-2024 Winter Outlook

October 19, 2023,  – Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released the 2022-23 U.S. Winter Outlook.

“This year, El Nino is in place heading into winter for the first time in four years, driving the outlook for warmer-than-average temperatures for the northern tier of the continental United States, according to NOAA’s U.S. Winter Outlook released today by the Climate Prediction Center — a division of the National Weather Service. 

From December through February, NOAA predicts wetter-than-average conditions for northern Alaska, portions of the West, the southern Plains, Southeast, Gulf Coast and lower mid-Atlantic and drier-than-average conditions across the northern tier of the U.S., especially in the northern Rockies and High Plains and near the Great Lakes.”

The 2023-24 U.S. Winter Outlook (December through February):

Precipitation

  • Wetter-than-average conditions are most likely in northern Alaska, some areas of the West from parts of California to the south-central Rockies, the southern Plains, Gulf Coast, Southeast and lower mid-Atlantic.

  •  The greatest odds for drier-than-average conditions are forecast in portions of the northern Rockies and central Great Lakes region, especially for Michigan and northern Ohio and Indiana..

  • Much of the central portion of the U.S. falls into the category of equal chances for below-, near-, or above-average seasonal total precipitation.

Temperature

  • Warmer-than-average temperatures are favored across the northern tier of the U.S. and much of the Far West.

  • Near-normal seasonal mean temperatures are most likely for a region from the south-central Rockies to the southern Plains

  • Remaining areas fall into the category of equal chances for below-, near-, or above-average seasonal mean temperatures.

 

NOAA’s seasonal outlooks provide the likelihood that temperatures and total precipitation amounts will be above-, near- or below-average, and how drought conditions are anticipated to change in the months ahead. The outlook does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations as snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updates the three-month outlook each month. The next update will be available November 16.